Getting my money's worth: A Northern Rail adventure - Delays from everyone

Delays happen. I get that. Northern Rail have a bit of a bad reputation for this, sometimes unfairly. With the failure of an electric unit resulting in the use of a Pacer unit (see previous post for my reaction to this) and the late running of the service due into Crewe before mine, likely meaning my train had to wait a bit behind this, I arrived into Manchester about 10 minutes late. No big deal, I'll get the tram to Victoria with the hope of getting the 10:21 to Leeds.
Nope.
The tram got to just inside the door at Victoria station and stopped. There was a tram in front just sitting in the platform not going anywhere. Turned out this was due to not having a driver, and it was sitting there waiting for one (you would've thought they'd do this at a terminus rather than in the middle of three routes, but whatever) so while sitting on the tram waiting to get to the platform, the 10:21 left. Well okay then. New plan. The next train to Leeds was the Selby-bound train at 10:48, which would get me to Leeds for 12:12. Still plenty of time to get to Carlisle on time, which is the important bit. I can't cancel my hotel if I don't do it before 12pm, so as long as I get on a Carlisle-bound train, I can safely make it to Newcastle, regardless of how late it is.

So here's the updated timetable with delays and changes as-of writing this post on the train to Leeds:

Depart Time	Depart Station	--	Arrive Station	Arrive Time
08:50+5min	Crewe	--	Manchester Piccadilly	09:44+10min (arr: 09:54)
10:48	Manchester Victoria	--	Leeds	12:12
12:49	Leeds	--	Carlisle	15:32
16:28	Carlisle	--	Newcastle	17:59

This still gives me over half an hour leeway at Leeds, which means I should still be able to make it. We'll see how the day continues.